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大胆预测一下微信应用号的战略:做一个全新概念的“长尾市场”!
时间:2016-01-13 08:22:30
文章发布:
原创作者:未知
来源:互联网

昨天一堆人都在唱衰应用号,说如何如何不可能,对此我只能说“你这样批评有个卵用,说得好像这些问题人家微信团队没想过一样”,消极对待可能会使得你和那些错过早期在淘宝开店的商家估计会是差不多的下场,错过红利期。

唱衰的理由总结起来很简单,也就三个观点:

第一种,“你们这群技术渣,native的优势是无可取代,微信的应用号限制太多必死无疑”

答:应用号和native之间不是互相矛盾的,和网店与实体店是一个道理,网店在刚开始的时候有无数致命问题几乎所有人都不看好,信任感低,销售困难,维权困难,无法实体体验,平台没了你就没了,当中随便一个理由都可以轻易否定掉网店,然而即使缺少这些优势网店依然起来了,现在都开始唱衰实体店了,但这里面的本质原因你们想过为什么没有?别从片面去看,而要从整个系统去看

第二种,“我就想问问我看文章的时候朋友突然来个消息我再回来就要很多麻烦的步骤,这要是应用号出了肯定更麻烦”

答:问这种问题的一般都是用户,但实际上这种交互体验问题在技术上解决办法是很多的,微信团队想到的第一个也可能就是这个问题,解决办法可以从界面信息设计和技术上的一些逻辑记录去解决

第三种,“创业者的数据怎么能给腾讯呢,你的数据都在他手里你会安心么?

“你真这么有商业价值你也不会用应用号了,应用号本来就是提供核心功能的地方,技术开发存在大量天花板,应用号的作用是获取用户快捷低廉,验证产品核心价值,用户如果想要完整的服务完全可以去下载你们native的app”

放心吧,微信应用号没那么简单也没那么复杂,别急着跟风唱衰,如果可以真的是个窗口你可能就会真的错过了,就像你错过订阅号的红利期一样。

要有一个相对准确的预测得从微信的价值观出发,站在微信之父张小龙的角度去思考,看看他给应用号的“DNA”是什么,也就是那些核心不变价值

1. 让创造发挥价值———“释放创造力”

2. 一切以用户价值为依归———“以用户体验为主”

一、先说第一个,“释放创造力”

native的成本到底有多高?

o 推广:平均成本5元一个下载 ,100万的下载量,月留存能有10w的都是少数中的少数

o 开发:安卓,ios要分开做,大量的机型、os版本差异、交互特殊等

就这两项能承受起的就不多了,起步价50w+左右,巨额的成本将大量的idea扼杀在摇篮里。而这些死掉的idea大部分就是因为市场小,盈利跟不上巨大的成本而看不到未来。

以小而美的产品为代表再说第二个,以用户体验为主。微信做的就是把开发和推广这两项成本尽可能的降低,推掉成本这座大山,改变移动互联网应用的规则,让创造者能把核心资源(钱和时间)关注到用户体验上,去真正为用户创造价值。

大胆预测一下应用号的战略:

做一个全新概念的“长尾市场”!!!

做一个全新概念的“长尾市场”!!!

在这里每用户都能轻松得找到自己的小众的需要,每个商家都能轻松地找到小众的用户群体。就像是淘宝,只不过平台的商家变成了创业者,商品变成了轻量级应用。

这类应用一般是小而美的,以核心功能为主。

这里要注意的是与重新创造一个长尾不同,用户已经在了,要做好的就是怎么让供给方上来,并控制好他们产出的东西。

二、长尾形成三要素

1. 生产普及———廉价好用的生产工具

2. 传播普及———有效的信息分发的渠道

3. 供需相连———过滤器

1、廉价好用的生产工具———多种模块化的接口SDK

已有的比如微信支付,用户账号,二维码,商城,数据库等,可能会开放的有部分用户行为数据。

这里我提个问题:可能还会开发怎样的模块化接口?才能让大多数符合大多数应用呢?

2、传播的好工具———营销成本的降低

这可能是关键中的关键,比开发那里重要得多的地方所在,因为微信天生有着巨大而活跃的用户群体,没有谁会放弃这块用户来源。

从“信息分发渠道”来说,微信现有的几个主要渠道“朋友圈、群聊、单聊、公众号、二维码”,有这几个就已经有可能能通过关系链不断传播了,效率比现在这些app的推广方式要容易许多。

微信一向的价值理念都是以让用户主动去选择而不做推荐干扰。就像订阅号一样,如果你不关注,那么那些信息始终不会主动干扰到你。那么要做到不打扰用户,同时帮助商家尽量精准营销,如何通过各种渠道的整合协调去实现还真是一件困难的事情(因为营销一般都具有打扰性质,两者天生有些矛盾存在)。

这个具体猜不出来,但可以肯定的是应用号和订阅号会有密切的关系

3、过滤器———供需双方的精准对接

过滤器有很多种,搜索引擎、分类标签、算法推荐等都是,目的就是把需要的信息呈现给别人:

1. 先说说搜索,这个应该会整合在原有的那个搜索位置,也就是右上角的那个位置(可能性100%)

2. 分类标签是可能有的,你能看到的所有应用商店都是有的,能帮助用户快速找到需要的类型(可能性60%)

3. 算法推荐,如果微信会做,就微信拥有的大数据来说做的推荐不说有多聪明但一定不笨(可能性30%)

但微信有着天然过滤器“人际关系网”,这也是微信的核心竞争力之一

优化设计关系链上信息的传播形式是关键中的关键,不论是信息传播方还是接受方都会有相应的规则(如信息的内容,信息的形式),这些规则将决定传播的精准度。

就是怎么让供给方上来,并控制好他们产出的东西。

三、红利在哪里?

“小而美”的产品更适合应用号,符合应用号希望的目标,这类产品能获取较多的红利,因为追随正确的趋势。原因:

1. “小而美”的产品基本都属于轻量级应用,微信的应用号的开发接口能降低开发成本,的是可能开放一些数据或者提供高效率的营销工具帮助你找到目标用户,节省大量资源用来做产品的功能和体验

2. 复杂的产品操作流畅性将大打折扣

3. 符合微信的价值观,微信自然也会帮你实现价值,小而美注重用户体验,能解决微信用户的需求并带来愉悦感这正是微信设计者想要的,他的生产工具还是传播工具更多的自然是符合“小而美”产品需求的

4. 小而美的产品相比App形式在微信上能更容易找到对应的用户,营销推广成本大大降低

5. 付费变得更加容易,有天然的信任感和环境

四、有了应用号可能会是怎样一个操作流程?

既然应用号作为一个入口,和手机桌面的感觉应该是类似的操作体验。

从“界面设计”上来说,应用号将可能成为除了“消息、通讯录、发现、我”这四个tab后“第五个Tab按钮”。原因如下:

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