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当前位置: 首页 > 新闻 > 业界动态
应用商店走向没落:新APP很难获得流量
时间:2015-11-20 09:22:14
文章发布:
原创作者:未知
来源:互联网

        在移动互联网早兴起的几年时间,应用商店曾是用户获取内容和服务的重要入口,成为风投基金和大公司所青睐领域,但如今,应用商店早已风光不再,很难获得外界舆论关注。

        一方面,手机硬件、微信等超级APP、HTML5在取代传统应用商店的功能,另一方面,应用商店的原有商业模式也难以维系。

        移动开发者们很早就想撇开App应用,直接将内容给到用户,如今更有一个直接的理由让它们迫不及待这么做——App获得的流量正在大幅减少。

        子木是国内一家手游公司的渠道负责人,她的主要工作职责就是将公司研发的产品推向各个主流的应用分发平台,并监督每款产品的下载量。这几年手游行业迅速发展,带动了大量公司和资本涌入,她估计在刚刚过去的10月就有接近300个新游戏上市。

        面对这样的市场,她却有些忧虑。“对用户来说,他们所能记住的仍是那几个在年初就已经霸占排行榜的产品”,她表示,如今一款游戏上线首发当天能够达到20-30万的用户量已经是很优秀的成绩了。然而,一年前随便一款游戏基本都能接近上百万的量级。

        与游戏类似的是,移动应用已经越来越难以出现类似脸萌这样的爆款应用。人们拿到新手机立刻安装的几乎全是那些已经发布数年的常用工具。随着HTML5技术的发展,用户甚至不需要安装更多的App,就能够通过浏览器或超级App中浏览器框架的功能访问日常服务。

        不是用户变得更加懒惰了,只是用户利用传统的应用商店难以获得其所需要的优质应用。用户究竟需要什么样的产品推荐,成为每个参与流量分发的环节都在思考的难题。

        产业聚集带来的危机

        从2014年第三季度开始,整个业界就已经开始谈论应用商店的二八分化。不厌其烦被引用的一组易观智库的报告数据显示,百度系、腾讯系以及360系三大应用分发平台共占据86%的市场份额。

        在往后的数个季度中,这几家的占比略有变化,但整体来看马太效应已经形成。至于排列在第二和第三阵营的玩家已经默认了巨头对产业规则的话语权,甚至他们希望通过以低价来吸引开发者的策略也难以实现。

        这样的现状导致应用开发者的渠道推广成本急速上升。与去年相比,在关键资源位的推广费用已经增长了30%左右。在一些开发者聚集的微信群中,百度等渠道提价、被其他CP抢资源的话题总会引起热烈的讨论。

        开发者抱怨分发成本越来越高的同时,更加担心应用数量增多后,其在应用商店能够被用户所关注到的机会正在流失。事实上,大量应用在上线发布后,如果不是长期烧钱抢占那些有限的广告位,很容易被用户所忘记。甚至没有机会接触到用户,就成为长尾中的一部分。

        应用宝日前披露的一系列数据正在引起开发者的关注。

        一方面,每个App获得流量正在日益减少,每个App获得的流量,与2013年相比,2014年下降了10%,而2015年与2014年相比也将下降18%;另一方面,流量正在加速向头部App聚集。2013年,应用分发流量的61%导入给了排名前100名的应用,而在2015年,这些应用获得的流量上升到了69%。

        艺源咨询分析师魏毅表示,将就大而全的中国市场,头部应用整合了更多的功能,其功能满足了绝大多数用户的日常需求,给长尾的应用空间更加小了。

        从“商店”变成“超市”或打破界限

        究其原因,主要与应用商店产品创新乏力有关。如今打开一个应用商店几乎与数年前智能手机刚刚普及时相差无二,积分墙、插屏广告、展示广告,以及排行榜这些有限的展示位一直被延续使用到智能手机渗透率接近饱和。

        不过,一些新的试验正在推动应用商店形态的升级,内容展示成为先被用户接受的方式。

        应用宝将QQ阅读中近期比较热门的内容提供给用户阅览,这带动了整体转化率提升了260%;而图片合成器这类工具应用原本的下载率很低,但为用户提供了合成前后图片的对比,用户很容易理解应用的用途,这使得该应用的下载转化率也提升了236%。

        在“社交分发”概念已被广泛接受之后,应用分发渠道开始渐渐意识到用户在下载前需要更多使用体验。苹果早早地在应用商店提供了视频展示的功能,以方便那些需要在下载前“教会”用户如何使用的App获得关注,但目前来看强调应用内服务和内容的体验会更易于提升用户下载的转化率,尤其是那些处于长尾范围的中小开发者。

        从“商店”变成“超市”,用户可以提前使用,这是强调体验之后,应用商店形态大的改变。这样的改变也符合开发者的诉求,腾讯移动应用平台总经理周涛表示,“我们看到很多开发者分发App只是一种手段,真正的结果是要分发内容和服务”。

        应用商店概念或将泛化

        未来,应用商店或许会从体验式分发往直达式分发转变,这会打破App现有的形态,尤其是那些并不在意下载量、而是对播放量或下单量有要求的视频电商类应用,其内容将可以在应用商店中直接体现,并完成触达用户和在线交易的闭环。

        但业内仍有疑问——用户未来到底是否需要应用商店?事实上,用户很多时候下载一个应用往往仅是需要某个功能或者部分内容。

        一方面,HTML5等技术的兴起,使得用户不用下载专门的App就可以利用浏览器完成类似的操作;另一方面,一些移动搜索引擎也正在做的更加智能,用户搜索关键词后,已经可以提供相应的内容结果,用户缩减了获取结果的路径长度。

        这是应用商店转型后的另一种形态的出现。可以看到更多的是,从操作系统底层到搜索引擎、浏览器,以及一众超级App所具有的分发能力,应用商店的概念势必也将不断泛化。

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