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当前位置: 首页 > 新闻 > 业界动态
有两种互联网行业:互联网,以及A股互联网
时间:2020-07-14 09:19:41
文章发布:李阳
原创作者:未知
来源:互联网

如果你是互联网专业人士,又经常阅读A股市场关于互联网/传媒行业的报告,你会发现,他们的关注点有些奇怪——去年 11 月在恶炒云游戏,去年 12 月以来在恶炒MCN,今年 2 月以来在恶炒远程办公。在此期间,永恒不变的话题是:腾讯游戏快完蛋了(网易也是);某些新兴第三方支付平台将取代支付宝和微信支付;几个你没听说过的公司在出海方面大有成就,已超过TikTok;等等。

别误会,上述热点当然是有一点道理的。云游戏、MCN、远程办公这些话题,主流互联网公司的人也在探讨。A股市场也有一些成长性很好、前途无量的互联网公司(以游戏公司为主)。不过,总体说来,A股投资者关注的“互联网热点”与行业主流的重叠度不高,严重趋向短期;有时候是过时的,有时候又太超前了。

这究竟是什么原因导致的?如果仅仅归咎于A股投资者和分析师的个人水平甚至道德品质,那也太简单粗暴、太不公平了。不幸的是,很多人,尤其是互联网专业人士,确实是这么看的。两个多月前,就有一家我很仰慕的互联网公司的高管,很严肃地对我说:“我平时特别看不上A股分析师。”

气氛比较尴尬,因为当时我也是A股分析师,我在等待他说“你是例外”,可是他根本就没有说。啊人生啊。

严肃地说,“A股互联网”与“主流互联网”脱钩的罪魁祸首,不是从业人员的个人能力或道德品质问题,而是下述三个问题:

  1. 主流互联网公司先是不能、然后是不愿在A股上市。

  2. 在上一个周期,A股机构投资者被某些互联网公司坑怕了。

  3. 消费互联网公司不符合当前A股市场的“主流叙事”。

上述任何一个问题都不可能在短期内解决,所以“A股互联网”还将保持与“主流互联网”脱钩并独立发展的节奏,而且很可能是越来越边缘化。

首先,主流互联网公司“不能”在A股上市,这个很好理解。三年盈利是A股市场的铁律(仅有科创板除外),大部分互联网公司在上市时都不可能满足这个要求。尤其是对于前期剧烈烧钱的平台型互联网公司而言,在烧钱的紧要关头赶紧上市融资、赶紧建立现代化公司治理架构才是正道。拼多多成立三年就上市了,趣头条、瑞幸咖啡成立两年就上市了,要它们再熬三年等A股简直是天方夜谭。

能够在创业早期满足“三年盈利”条件的互联网公司,往往是内容公司,尤其是游戏公司。不幸的是,A股监管部门非常讨厌游戏、影视两个行业,至少在2016- 19 年之间是如此。我最喜欢的二次元游戏研发公司——米哈游,从 2018 年初就在排队,身家清白、盈利能力良好,结果到现在好像还没有上会。 2019 年下半年,监管部门表示又不反对游戏公司上市了,但是从那时起至今,还没有一家游戏公司以IPO方式在A股上市成功。

至于科创板,那是给半导体、通信设备、企业软件等“关系国计民生”的所谓基础研发巨头准备的,消费互联网公司就不用去凑那个热闹了。

2015 年,由于A股传媒及互联网公司的估值极高,美股中概互联网公司确实严肃考虑过私有化回国上市,其中几家还取得了成功。不过,截止 2019 年,A股传媒互联网板块的估值优势已经基本消弭掉了——你可以看到十几倍P/E的游戏公司,一倍P/B的广告公司和影视公司。有些公司看起来P/E倍数很吓人,其实是因为盈利太低了……

对于主流互联网公司来说,在A股上市的麻烦事太多了:发放期权(股权激励)需要漫长而痛苦的审核;并购活动的审核更严;再融资的审核尤其严;双重股权架构更是不存在的。如果上面几件事情都不能做,那么互联网公司还上市做什么?除非A股市场能给出显著的估值优势,可惜它早就给不了了。

所以,现在的问题是:除了游戏等内容公司,主流互联网公司不能也不愿在A股上市;而A股监管者又特别讨厌内容公司尤其是游戏公司。这就尴尬了。

其次,在上一个“大牛市周期”(2014- 15 年)当中,以乐视网、暴风集团为代表的“本土互联网巨头”把机构投资者坑了个四脚朝天。重仓乐视网的投资者,除了少数及时跑掉的之外,大体都蒙受了不可磨灭的痛苦。当时还有许多A股“小巨头”“小独角兽”,从游戏到社交、从电商到出海,无所不包。

2016- 19 年,A股传媒互联网行业经历了惨绝人寰的超级大熊市,几乎每年都跑到全市场倒数前三。凡是敢再相信“本土互联网神话”的投资者,几乎全被消灭了。不仅是互联网,影视行业、传统电视行业、传统广告行业……都变得没人敢碰了。 2015 年,随便找一家A股传媒公司,你会看到二十多家券商的报告; 2019 年,三分之二的A股传媒公司已经没人写报告了。

在这种情况下,如果投资者还想在传媒及互联网行业赚钱,只有一条途径:短炒,炒“无法证伪”的概念。因为是短炒,所以没人会去认真算盈利、算成长空间;因为是一窝蜂的“存量博弈”,所以只要一个概念在短期内没法破掉,抢椅子的游戏就可以继续进行下去。

举个例子:“云游戏最终会颠覆一切PC和移动端游戏”,这个观点无论对错,都是不可能在短期内证伪的。而且,云游戏的技术路线、商业模式全部不成熟不确定,无法估算真实市场空间,更算不出具体公司的盈利。这两条恰好符合A股投资者对传媒互联网行业的定位:就是拿来短炒的,过把瘾就走。没人想听游戏公司念叨自己的自研IP有多强、发行创新怎么做,大家就想听“云游戏万亿级市场”的故事。

再举个例子:有人坚持说,字节跳动做游戏要跟腾讯死磕,所以要高价收买“非腾讯系”(也就是没法让腾讯代理自己产品的)游戏CP,甚至要“大把撒钱”让它们帮助自己打败腾讯。字节跳动显然没必要给第三方CP“大把撒钱”;事实上,是独立CP在字节跳动的平台上“大把撒钱”买量。不过,A股投资者无意纠结细节——“字节跳动大把撒钱”的故事,可以套用在任何一家与腾讯没有合作关系的游戏公司身上,炒那么几个月就够了。

最后,自从 2018 年以来,消费互联网(中国互联网行业当之无愧的绝对主流)已经不符合A股市场的主流叙事了。现在的主流叙事是:自主安全可控、加强基础研发、做好2B业务、进取逐鹿天下。消费互联网,无论游戏、电商、视频、社交还是支付,全部不符合上述主流叙事。

在一波又一波的短炒当中,寥寥无几的A股互联网公司始终没有进入A股投资者心目中的“核心资产”名单。核心资产必须符合主流叙事,必须符合投资者心目中的“宏观走向”,这是可以理解的;问题在于,茅台似乎也不符合主流叙事,为何能进入所有A股投资者的“核心资产”名单呢?这一点我就不清楚啦。

还有一个问题:虽然经验丰富的A股投资者,也就是经历过上一个牛熊周期的老人们,已经熟悉了A股传媒互联网行业的套路、不会把短期故事当真,但是还是会有一些经验不太丰富的人把自己忽悠进去。人生如戏,戏如人生,屁股永远决定脑袋。直到现在还有人认为,当年的乐视网不是骗子,只是赌的太大收不住手了;同样有人认真地认为,腾讯游戏是外强中干的纸老虎,支付宝和微信支付也可以轻易被颠覆,就连爱奇艺和B站都能被某个名不见经传的新兴竞争者超越。

记得 2015 年,我曾经拜访过某家规模远大于乐视网的网络视频平台(名字就不点了,反正就那么几个候选对象)。当时,乐视网还是千亿市值的热门公司,A股投资者口中的"BATL"之一。那家视频平台的人对我很严肃地说:

“乐视网不是我们的竞争对手,它不属于我们行业。”

我有些吃惊地问:“那乐视网应该属于哪个行业呢?”

对方回答:“它属于A股行业。”

今天何尝不是如此呢?有多少“A股热门互联网公司”,不是属于互联网行业,而是属于“A股行业”?这是一个有趣的命题,不过我不认为有人会认真研究它,因为性价比太低啦。


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