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互联网行业,得数据者得天下?
时间:2020-07-18 10:51:29
文章发布:李阳
原创作者:未知
来源:互联网

数据是继土地、劳动、资本后第四大生产要素,尽管我们常常忽略它,但其重要意义非同一般。更深一步,人工智能比拼的并不是算法,而是数据。

在互联网行业,尤其是在投资人心目中,往往存在一种“算法迷信”或曰“技术迷信”:某公司的广告变现做得好,一定是因为有算法;某公司的云计算业务开展的好,也是因为有算法;某公司的游戏用户留存率高,还是因为有算法……所以,一切用户问题和变现问题都可以通过“技术中台”解决,从Google或Facebook挖到的“算法专家”可以构成互联网行业的核心竞争力。

遗憾的是,上述观点是错误的。

算法当然很重要。可是如果没有数据,你拿什么去“算”呢?如果把Google、Facebook、今日头条或淘宝的算法团队划拨给本怪盗团,难道本怪盗团就可以“冷启动”搞出一个全世界最厉害的流量变现平台吗?

我们可以毫不客气地说:算法是可以用钱买到的,但是数据无法用钱买到;头部互联网公司在算法上不会有什么代差,但是在数据丰富程度和可用性方面可能产生代差(注:并不意味着一定有代差)。

数据是继土地、劳动、资本后第四大生产要素,尽管我们常常忽略它,但其重要意义非同一般。更深一步,人工智能比拼的并不是算法,而是数据。

“得数据者得天下,得数据者得算法”,互联网巨头深深把控着消费端数据,最有望在数据时代脱颖而出。万物互联将极大丰富数据的维度,数据在娱乐、商业模式等方面都有着广阔的空间。

3G至4G时代数据价值只是初现,5G时代将进一步爆发

从3G至4G时代,数据的价值逐步显现。第一个案例我们来讲内容端的应用——推荐算法,每个内容产品的算法核心都是根据用户数据和内容标签计算二者的匹配程度,理论大体一致。算法就像是“加速器”,用户感觉特别明显,点什么视频,类似的视频就会越来越多,不知不觉时长和黏性就都有了。

其中今日头条、抖音以及快手可以说是推荐算法领域的佼佼者,算法提高了用户的满意度和时长,变相提高了商业化能力。比如头条的DAU/MAU (47%)是腾讯新闻的1.5倍,日均时长(87分钟)是腾讯新闻的1.6倍;抖音的DAU/MAU(50%)是腾讯视频的2.5倍,日均时长(60分钟)与腾讯视频相差无几,头条和抖音约撑起了800亿的广告市场盘子。

数据的沉淀进一步保证了用户的黏性,这就是数据打造的加速器和护城河。在移动时代,互联网公司对数据和算法的依赖程度远高于PC时代,主要由于:

  • 第一,网页架构不支持“千人千面”,需要“封闭”空间;

  • 第二,移动端数据维度丰富,设备、地理位置、时长、App情况等都可以进一步丰富标签准确性。

互联网行业,得算法者得天下?不如说:得数据者得天下

(信息获取的四个时代:门户、搜索、社交、算法)

以快手和趣头条为例。2014年春,推荐算法上线,快手下载量斜率明显陡峭了起来;到7月份快手的日活用户就突破了百万,到2015年1月就破了千万,1年100倍的用户增长速度足以为“算法”正名。(要知道快手的App推广部门是2016年下半年才着手建立的,上述增长来自于自然增长)

此外,趣头条2017年6月上线算法,经过2-3个季度的数据积累和算法改进,我们可以看到用户数和日均时长均有显著提升。

互联网行业,得算法者得天下?不如说:得数据者得天下

(快手的版本迭代及App Store总下载量)

互联网行业,得算法者得天下?不如说:得数据者得天下

(推荐算法的推出与趣头条的用户增长)

第二个案例是技术层面——定位的精准化。

智能手机出现推动LBS发展,而LBS极大推动美团(本地生活服务)、陌陌(LBS社交)等相关应用的发展,通信技术发展可以推动基站定位模式的精准度。目前主流的定位SDK-百度地图、高德地图采用混合定位模式,即GPS定位、基站定位、WIFI定位等。

其中GPS定位精度高、无需手机信号,但需要GPS模块支持,在室内无法使用,耗电量较高;基站定位方便、速度快,但精度有限,无信号的地区无法定位。从4G到5G将提高基站的密度提升,进一步推动基站定位精度大幅提高。

互联网行业,得算法者得天下?不如说:得数据者得天下

(百度地图SDK采取混合定位模式)

那么5G时代将带来什么新的数据维度和精度呢?

首先,数据维度大幅提升,5G将推动万物互联,5G时代连接数量达100万/〖km〗^2,是4G时代的100倍。根据AT&T的数据,到2020年物联网的连接数将达到500亿,其中物的连接数占比80%。一方面,联网设备数增加,将线上和线下数据进一步打通;另一方面,物物之间的连接数大幅提升,数据的维度和延续性都有了实质提升。

互联网行业,得算法者得天下?不如说:得数据者得天下

(5G相对于4G的数据能力全面提升)

其次,5G基站将实现更加精准定位,基站定位原理主要由三个基站信号强弱确定,而由于5G穿透性不如4G,需要更多的5G基站完成原来4G信号塔的作用。在基站密度一定情况下,5G可以将基站定位精度提升至1m,并且更多5G基站在室内,室内定位效果也将增强。(类似于WIFI定位,但效果更好。)

可想而知,进入5G时代,互联网行业的海量数据会变成天量数据,数据的精准度、可用性、灵活性也会大幅提升。

举两个很简单的例子:如果智能家居真能成为主流,就无异于在移动互联网之外再造了一个“家居互联网”;如果5G基站定位精度达到1米以内,传说中的“室内LBS服务”将成为现实。当然,由此产生的用户隐私等法律、道德问题也是不容忽视的。若能妥善解决隐私问题,互联网行业将在5G时代迎来一波全新的“数据/算法红利”。

移动数据四巨头:硬件商、运营商、互联网平台、第三方

互联网巨头日益重视内部数据打通,进一步推动数据价值发挥。阿里的数据中台概念提出在2016年,字节跳动对内部数据的透明度和共享从创立初就有了极高的追求,2019年5月腾讯云与智慧产业事业群负责人汤道生宣布腾讯将开放技术中台和数据中台,整体上看大部分互联网公司的内部数据打通才刚开始起步。

阿里是国内“中台战略”领先的互联网巨头,从阿里云数据中台全景图中我们可以窥见,数据中台向下连接计算与存储平台(IaaS)、向上对接阿里各个数据应用部门,淘宝、天猫等部门的数据统一采集计入平台,形成垂直数据中心,再通过业务板块、过程、分析维度为架构构建公共数据中心,最后提取标签形成萃取数据中心,真正意义上打通了数据闭环,推动广告业务的精准化以及大数据领域变现发展。

互联网行业,得算法者得天下?不如说:得数据者得天下

(阿里云数据中台全景图)

数据是大数据业务的基础(废话),5G时代数据的主流玩家有哪些?

以移动端为蓝本分析,主要有四类玩家,智能设备厂商、运营商/云计算厂商、Hero App(头部应用)以及第三方专业服务商,在的广度、深度以及商业化上存在明显差异。

  1. 智能设备厂商:5G时代大量设备实现联网,智能设备厂商数量爆发,但仍然会有一个类似“手机”的核心设备存在实现远程遥控。核心设备厂商竞争仍将类似手机厂商的竞争格局,单个厂商数据广度较为有限,但深度更深。

  2. 运营商:联网是一切智能设备的必要条件,兼具广度和深度。广度方面,未来仍是四分天下的格局;深度方面,联网信息、地理位置、应用信息以及物联网设备之间的联系也都一目了然。

  3. 互联网巨头:沟通、购物需求重要性仍在,微信、支付宝、游戏等应用或替代品仍将占据海量用户。广度方面,类似于4G时代,仍将拥有海量用户;深度方面,除了基本信息外,还包括应用内部的数据(支付、搜索);商业化方面,主要限于内部使用。

  4. 第三方厂商:5G物联网设备也将采用长连接技术,类似于个推、极光等推送类SDK服务商也有着广阔应用空间。广度方面,中立性和技术优势推动其拥有海量覆盖设备;深度方面,5G将推动数据维度提升;商业化方面,第三方厂商应用领域更为“激进”。

互联网行业,得算法者得天下?不如说:得数据者得天下

(移动端主流数据玩家的能力对比)

数据可以产生多少“钱景”?以短视频广告为例

众所周知,以抖音为代表的短视频广告变现能力极强,转化率高。信息流广告的变现可以简化为“收入=DAU * VV * Adload * CPM”,短视频信息流的变现模式可以说非常有效率。

对于抖音和快手,二者的DAU级别在2-3亿,由于其高黏性(DAU/MAU),这一数字很有可能继续扩大。

VV(视频播放量)上面短视频也明显优于中长视频,抖音、快手日活VV都在100以上,B站约20左右,为广告加载提供了充足的播放池;加载率方面,行业的天花板在15%左右,而快手由于社区属性更强的原因,加载率仅在3%左右(通过与创作者合作可以变相提高这一比例);

CPM方面,短视频的广告一般在15-30秒之间,其原生性和趣味性也导致有着更高的强制性和转化率,CPM明显高于图文类。2019年短视频贡献的广告增量超过500亿,接近互联网广告行业增量的50%。(附带说一句:2019年字节跳动广告业务的KPI约800亿,快手广告业务KPI约150亿。)

以抖音为代表的短视频流量爆发也推动了诸如三七互娱等游戏公司游戏流水的大幅增长。游戏行业仍为短视频重点广告主,仙侠、传奇居前。基于App Growing广告算法模型,对19Q1追踪到的快手广告情报来看,游戏行业仍是快手平台的重点广告主,数量占比超60%,其次是文化娱乐和电商行业广告投放。

在游戏广告中,仙侠题材(27.0%)、传奇(19.6%)、三国(7.9%)为重点投放类型,这也与快手的用户结构相呼应。从App(非游戏)投放广告来看,购物、娱乐类排在前列,分别占比35.2%和32.7%。

互联网行业,得算法者得天下?不如说:得数据者得天下

(2019年快手平台各行业广告投放估算)

为什么抖音、快手如此适合游戏及电商广告投放?

用户活跃度高是一方面,销售能力强是一方面,但是最重要、最不可替代的原因是:数据可用性强、算法好、让广告主有钱赚,从而更愿意投放。例如:抖音对游戏广告主甚至可以以“单个付费用户”为单位结算,甚至可以约定“若用户流失则退款”;抖音、快手均可以将广告主的效果需求(CPA/ROI等)高效地“翻译”成前台CPM需求,快速而灵活地响应广告主的需求。

反观其他广告平台,多半不具备数据上的优势:微博一贯不以数据和算法见长;微信沉淀了大量用户数据,但是非常谨慎,不愿向广告主开放敏感数据;百度倒是一直重视数据和算法, 但是流量已经基本见顶;门户网站和垂直平台的用户基数较小、数据储备不足,很难为广告主提供一站式的解决方案;长视频平台虽然用户时长不逊于短视频,但是在打通数据、提供有灵活性的广告方案方面,与抖音、快手有较大的差距。

我们看到:在短视频时代,凭借数据和算法的绝对优势,抖音、快手均取得了巨大的商业化成功。

那么,在5G时代乃至“万物互联时代”,数据的进一步深化,又会在互联网行业造就什么新机会?或许我们已经知道了一半答案;另一半还有待揭晓。


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